The arcane strategies of election campaigns may be the last thing people want to contemplate now, 15 months before they go to the polls, but even at this early stage there are some intriguing aspects to Idaho's 2010 congressional race.

The incumbent, Rep. Walt Minnick, is a former Republican turned Democrat who defeated first-term Congressman Bill Sali in 2008, thereby becoming only the second "D" to represent Idaho's 1st Congressional District in the past 40 years. His Republican challengers include Vaughn Ward, a former Marine Corps major and CIA operations officer, and Ken Roberts, a farmer, small businessman and five-time state representative from Donnelly.

Despite facing a weak opponent - one who often alienated voters with his ideological stance on issues - Minnick barely prevailed last November. Sali actually won in 12 of the district's 19 counties. Minnick garnered just 50.6 percent of the vote, a margin of 4,211 votes out of 347,585 cast. It took a coalition of Democrats, independents and moderate Republicans to get him over the hump.

But how to win re-election? "Do what's right for the state" - the standard mantra of all elected officials - sounds like a great strategy, but it's tough to achieve when your coalition members have such different views about what's right. Minnick has already run into this with his Democratic base: After years in the wilderness, they're ready to revel in their majority, and they expect Minnick to support their president and party.

Should he do that, however, the remainder of his coalition may pack up and leave. To this point, supporting president and party has meant embracing unprecedented federal spending, massive interventions in private-sector industries, extraordinary shifts in health care, climate legislation and financial industry regulation. That's hardly a strategy suited to winning a congressional seat in western Idaho.

At times, Minnick seems to be pursuing the exact opposite strategy: Rather than appease his Democratic base, he has out-Republicaned the Republicans with his lack of support for the stimulus plan, industry bailouts, deficit spending and other free-spending fiscal policies.

More often, though, he walks a tightrope, trying to make the case Idahoans are best served by a pragmatic, fiscally conservative congressman who evaluates issues on their merits instead of voting the party line.

Calculated or not, it's unclear if that strategy will earn him a second term. Given his slim margin of victory last year, Minnick can't afford to upset any of the partners that brought him to the dance. The irony is he only won because enough Republicans crossed party lines to support him. Should Democrats now prove more ideologically intransigent and abandon him because he's not "Democrat enough," he could lose.

Republicans are eager to capitalize on any missteps. Based on historic voting patterns, Idaho's 1st Congressional District is the third-most Republican district in the nation currently held by a Democrat, according to the Cook Political Report, and political pundits around the country cite Minnick as one of the four or five most vulnerable freshmen in Congress. National committees have already targeted his seat.

Other than noting he's in the same party as Obama and Nancy Pelosi, neither Ward or Roberts have really started taking shots at Minnick. To this point, their main focus has been establishing their campaign organizations - and in that regard, each is building on his strengths.

Ward, for example, has ties with Congress and the national Republican infrastructure. He previously worked as a Senate legislative aide for Dirk Kempthorne, and served as Nevada state director on Sen. John McCain's presidential campaign.

Those connections have already paid off. McCain endorsed Ward earlier this year, and Sarah Palin's father and father-in-law will be in Idaho next week to campaign for him. Palin herself could lend him some star power later in the year. The National Republican Congressional Committee also has Ward on its radar, which should help his national fundraising efforts.

Roberts, by contrast, is emphasizing his Idaho roots. Having lived in the district his whole life and having served in the Legislature for so long, he's earned the support of local leaders throughout the region. House Speaker Lawerence Denney recently signed on as his campaign chairman, and on Wednesday he was endorsed by one former and 28 active legislators who represent the district.

So these are the choices: A local boy intimately familiar with the problems and issues facing people in the district; a Marine Corps veteran who grew up in Idaho, went on to serve his country, and now returns; and an independent Democrat walking a tightrope between the party faithful and the moderates/independents who collectively put him in office.

Watching how each tries to pick a path towards victory should make for an interesting race.

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Spence covers politics for the Tribune. He may be contacted at bspence@lmtribune.com or (208) 848-2274.