A new poll says Democratic gubernatorial challenger Keith Allred is far behind Republican Gov. C. L. (Butch) Otter.

Only one thing could be worse for Allred.

A poll that has him closing in.

Last week's Rasmussen Reports shows Otter with 62 percent of the voters having a favorable view of him. Allred can claim only 34 percent who view him favorably. The two-to-one margin isn't exactly a one-on-one comparison, but it's what you'd expect in a heavily Republican state where the GOP incumbent is well known and the Democratic candidate is not.

Not only is Otter leading comfortably, but the background noise is trending his way. Rasmussen says 61 percent strongly disapprove of President Barack Obama's job performance and 65 percent strongly oppose the Democratic health care reform package.

Not necessarily encouraging news for Allred. But it's hardly fatal, either. For him, the point is getting exposure. He failed to do enough of that during the just-concluded legislative session. So the poll shows.

On the other hand, voters haven't had time to absorb how Otter and GOP legislators cut schools and other programs. Today's GOP assets could become tomorrow's liabilities.

One hazard for Otter's camp, however, is the tendency to become complacent. For instance, some Republicans may want to know why Otter's campaign would promote a poll showing him kicking the tar out of Allred just at a time when the Republican is seeking campaign contributions. In tight times, people are inclined to hold onto their wallets.

Such was the story four years ago. Otter seemingly had the race won. He had the GOP nomination sewn up for months. The economy was humming. His party had delivered property tax relief. Otter was running a Rose Garden strategy. Then all of a sudden, Otter's victory lap seemed premature.

Election eve polls showed Democratic candidate Jerry Brady pulling even.

Republican pollster Greg Smith had Brady in front 41 percent to 36 percent.

A media-sponsored Mason-Dixon poll had Otter ahead 44 percent to 43 percent for Brady.

A third poll had Brady up 42 percent to 40 percent for Otter.

What that meant was a lot of Republicans were on the fence. They'd probably vote for Otter, but they were still deciding. Polls certainly suggested a sense of building momentum for Brady.

Startled by the developments, the Otter team persuaded former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney to break from his own presidential campaign and return to Boise for a Statehouse campaign rally. Romney was popular in the Gem State and particularly in Mormon-dominated eastern Idaho, which had never warmed to Otter.

Otter's camp revved up the GOP organizational muscle, making pamphlet drops throughout the state. More registered poll watchers were assigned. Get-out-the-vote efforts were intensified.

It worked. Brady was held to a 44.1 percent margin. Otter split the vote with independents and claimed office by a narrow 52.7 percent.

Whatever campaign assets he amasses in the coming months, Allred will never be able to match the GOP organization - which is never better than when it senses a close call in the making. So the last thing he wants in April is a poll that scares the Republican political machinery into hyper-drive.

Allred's best chance is a last-minute surge that comes so late the GOP can't do anything about it. - M.T.