Tropical Weather-Atlantic for Sunday, September 22, 2024

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High risk of development remains in western Caribbean this week; Two other areas being monitored

AccuWeather hurricane experts say there is a high risk for tropical storm formation in the western Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico between Tuesday and Wednesday of this week, where showers and

thunderstorms are expected to become better organized. AccuWeather was the first source to highlight both a medium and high risk for tropical development in this region.

If formation occurs, a landfall would be highly likely this week, possibly initially in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula or western Cuba, and eventually in the central or eastern Gulf coast. In addition,

due to the warm waters in the region, the storm can quickly gain strength and potentially become a hurricane. Historically, a storm moving northward from the Caribbean this time of year not only

strengthens, but if there is a lack of wind shear, can do so rapidly. Major hurricanes (maximum sustained wind speeds of at least 111 mph) have developed in similar situations in the past.

The next name on the Atlantic list is Helene.

Interests in the Caribbean, Mexico and southern United States should closely monitor this potential storm and be ready to take quick action should formation occur by the middle of the week. Once

formation occurs, a landfall in the United States is expected to occur within 48 to 72 hours.

After the storm makes landfall, it can bring impacts from the lower Mississippi Valley to the Southeast and mid-Atlantic late this week into this upcoming weekend in the way of flooding rainfall,

gusty winds and even isolated tornadoes.

AccuWeather hurricane experts are also monitoring an area off the west coast of Africa that has a medium chance of development during the middle to late portions of this week.

Lastly, an area of low pressure several hundred miles southeast of Bermuda has a low chance of development today and Monday before losing the chance to gain tropical characteristics.

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