Tropical Weather-Atlantic for Saturday, September 21, 2024

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High risk for development during the middle of next week

AccuWeather hurricane experts say there is a high risk for tropical storm formation in the western Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico between Tuesday and Thursday of next week, where showers and

thunderstorms are expected to become better organized. AccuWeather was the first source to highlight both a medium and high risk for tropical development in this region.

If formation occurs, a landfall would be highly likely next week, possibly initially in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula or western Cuba, and perhaps eventually in the southeastern United States. In

addition, due to the warm waters in the region, the storm can quickly gain strength and potentially become a hurricane. Historically, a storm moving northward from the Caribbean this time of year not

only strengthens but if there is a lack of wind shear, can do so rapidly. Major hurricanes (maximum sustained wind speeds of at least 111 mph) have developed in similar situations in the past.

The next name on the Atlantic list is Helene.

Interests in the Caribbean, Mexico and southern U.S. should closely monitor this potential storm and be ready to take quick action should formation occur early next week.

The eventual path of the potential tropical storm is dependent on the strength of the jet stream over the U.S. A weaker jet stream would likely result in a slower, farther-west movement of the storm

toward Mexico and the western Gulf of Mexico, while a stronger jet stream would portend a faster movement of the storm farther east toward Cuba, the eastern Gulf or Florida.

AccuWeather hurricane experts are also watching an area off the west coast of Africa that will have to be watched for development during the middle to late portions of next week.

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